According to a climate model recently published by scientists, about one-fifth of the Earth’s surface could be as hot as the Sahara desert by 2070 due to the effects of climate change.
According to Earther, if this prediction comes true, about one-third of the world’s population will have to migrate out of their homes or will have to try to live with such extreme weather in the long run.
Currently only about 0.8% of the earth’s surface has extreme weather like the Sahara Desert. But it is estimated that by 2070, the area affected by high temperatures such as the Sahara Desert will reach 19% if greenhouse gas emissions are not controlled.
Jens-Christian Svenning, a scientist from Aarhus University, co-authored the study even speculated: “If this happens, there will be about 3.5 billion people living in conditions that seem impossible to live in.”
High temperatures combined with migration will leave agricultural land deserted and unable to grow staple crops to feed humanity.
The forecast is based on a rather extreme scenario if humans cannot tackle climate change and reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Even with the most optimistic perspective, about 1.2 billion people will no longer be living in a temperate and comfortable climate for the past 6 thousand years.
According to the US scientists’ chart, areas located in the tropics around the equator will suffer the hardest when global temperatures rise. Specifically can be included around Brazil, North Africa, Southern Europe, India, the Middle East, East Asia and Southeast Asia, part of Australia. Meanwhile, areas in the far east of Russia, Canada and the Arctic will gradually change to a temperate climate.
Countries in the tropics are hardest hit by climate change
Of course, as mentioned above, extreme weather will force people to migrate in search of a new place to live. They are climate refugees and it is likely that the far north and the southern lands will become new places of human life in the future.
There will be many changes over the next 50 years compared to the time period of the past 6 thousand years
Instead of considering climate change as a physical or economic issue, the article written in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in America looks at how it affects human habitats.
The vast majority of humanity lives in areas with an average annual temperature of about 6 degrees C – 28 degrees C. Most of the area has temperatures between 11-15 degrees C and a small number live in the area. from 20-25 degrees C and above.
This is the ideal temperature condition for living and producing food and food. But the temperature limit is increasing, leading the region to an ideal temperature that is narrowing and moving towards the poles. This is a result of the greenhouse effect that has “burnt” the Earth.
Humans are especially sensitive to temperature, especially when we live on land, the surface is easier to absorb heat than the ocean. The pressure is getting worse as the population increase is concentrated in countries that already face constant heat like Africa and Asia. Due to demographic factors, people will have to experience an average temperature rise of 7.5 degrees Celsius if global temperatures reach the threshold of 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century as predicted.
At that temperature, about 30% of the population will have to live with extreme weather when the average daily temperature of the year reaches 29 degrees C. This is something that rarely happens in many foreign lands. except the Sahara. An estimated 1.2 billion people in India, 485 million people in Nigeria and more than 100 million people in Pakistan, Indonesia and Sudan will be affected by this extreme type of climate.
Professor Marten Scheffer from Wageningen University, the Netherlands said: “I think it is fair to say that the average temperature above 29 degrees Celsius is a temperature that is difficult to survive. You will have to migrate or learn to adapt. If you have enough money and energy, you can use air-conditioning and eat as much as you want. But not everyone has such an abundance. “
Scheffer has previously studied the climate distribution in tropical and savanna rainforests. He always wondered how the climate would be distributed if it applied to humans. Scheffer once shared: “We know that most organisms’ habitats are limited by temperature. For example, penguins only appear in cold water or corals are only in warm water. But we did not expect that. People think we are very adaptable because we use clothes, heat and air conditioners, but in reality, the vast majority of people are living in one thing. is the climate drive is always moving. “
He concluded: “There will be many changes in the next 50 years and it is very different from the changes in the past 6 thousand years.”
The study’s authors say their findings will help motivate policymakers to enact regulations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally. Above all it also helps mankind to awaken and soon draw up plans to cope with the wave of migration, while avoiding future climate crises.
Tim Lenton, a climate expert at Exeter University, V.Q UK, is optimistic: “The good news is that these effects can be greatly reduced if mankind succeeds in curbing global warming. Our calculations show that every time the temperature rises by 1 degree Celsius above the level.” Currently, there will be about 1 billion people being pushed out of a safe climate, but more importantly, we need to look for the benefits of reducing humanitarian greenhouse gas emissions instead of using Economic terminology here “.
The research was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday (May 4) and the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.